Asset Class Returns As At 28 February 2014

February saw a lot of movement of funds. Looking at that month alone, there had been a large mobilisation of funds from those on the sidelines. Even commodities surged after a sombre 2013. This was the surge that could very well start the deluge of idle funds making them to go to work. Unfortunately the Ukraine situation kind of put a spanner into the works. The key now is to see if that is enough to derail the funds to flee completely and stay sidelined again. My view is that the incursions into Crimea and Ukraine by Russia will result in trade sanctions rather than an outright war by NATO/US against Russia. Obama will be loathed to send in any troops and certainly not against Russia. Once the sanctions are announced I believe some stability will be seen in the markets.

British & American English

Still deciphering between American and British English?? .... nowadays, it does not matter much, heck American English will prevail owing to the media and modern culture being largely American. We all know what the words mean, so fergedaboudit, use both without snobbery or rolling of the eyes, please.

Liquor Guzzling Countries

If we were all guessing, we'd think the Russians and the Polish would top the drinking table. Read till the end and be surprised. 
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Whether it’s whiskey, vodka, or soju, people around the world love their liquor. And some countries love liquor more than others.

Global marketing research firm Euromonitor International shared their analysis of the market for hard liquor in 53 countries around the world. This map shows the amount of liquor sold in each country during 2013 per capita, per week:

Business Insider, data from Euromonitor

South Korea handily dominates the list of countries, drinking more than twice as much liquor per capita as any other country. Three predominantly Muslim countries — Egypt, Indonesia, and Saudi Arabia — reported zero liquor sales in 2013.

We converted the Euromonitor data from mL to shots, using a standard U.S. 1.5 oz (44 mL) shot glass.

Here are the ten countries in Euromonitor’s database who consume the most liquor:

1. South Korea — 11.2 shots/week
2. Russia — 5.0 shots/week
3. Thailand — 4.8 shots/week
4. Poland — 4.0 shots/week
5. Japan — 3.6 shots/week
6. Philippines — 3.5 shots/week
7. Bulgaria — 3.3 shots/week
8. Slovakia — 3.0 shots/week
9. Ukraine — 2.8 shots/week
10. France — 2.7 shots/week

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Who knew that our neighbours in Thailand drank so much, and the Koreans OMG. But the question everyone should be pondering:

Are they drinking to celebrate life, or drinking to drown their sorrows or numb their desperate lives. Many drunks, but each with their own reason. What's yours?

CLSA Feng Shui Chart So Far So Good

Following the turbulent and scary month of January, nobody would have dared to predict a swift rebound. Last year's chart was pretty accurate as was 2012. Judging from the chart, we have February and March being decent months followed by a lull. Let's see if that pans out, if it does, then we can be more confident for May, June and July. LOL ... when fundamentals and technicals cannot make better predictions, when you have lost all hope in your own abilities to predict the markets, .... this chart is not too bad. 

Investors are a silly bunch, there are those who believe that they will NEVER be able to beat the markets. Then there are those who have exhausted their fundamentals analysis and still cannot beat the markets. Then there are the technical guys, same result. But the worst kind of investors are those who pooh-pooh everything that does not fall into their line of thinking, or that they must know why they make money or lose money, and would never bother to give this "fantastic fengshui chart" a try. 

Whatever works man, whatever works is my friend ... investing is an inexact and fluid science.

Getting A Degree Outweighs The Cost

An interesting article from WSJ:

College is costly. But not going is even more costly.

A new report from the Pew Research Center finds that Millennials with a college degree earn more, have higher employment rates and report greater job satisfaction than those who stopped their formal educations during or after high school.

Median annual earnings among college-educated full-time workers aged 25-32 rose by nearly $7,000–to $45,500, in 2012 dollars–between 1965 and 2013. Meanwhile, their high-school-educated peers lost more than $3,000, with earnings falling to $28,000 over that time period.

The findings are based on a Pew survey of 2,002 adults and an analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data.
Young adults with college degrees also have a greater sense that they’re on a clear career path, with 86% saying their job is a career, or at least a steppingstone to a career. Just 57% of high school graduates feel the same way.

Though the up-front cost of college is high, and climbing higher, the Pew report found that Millennials overwhelmingly feel their college education has already paid off. Eighty-six percent of those with loans say the degree has been worth it, or will be soon.

The earnings divide between college graduates and high school graduates has been a topic of conversation for years, but the Pew report reinforces the fact that the gap is particularly wide in the Millennial generation. In 1979, high school graduates of the Baby Boomer generation earned about three-quarters of what their college-educated peers did. Today, they bring in just 62 cents on the dollar.

Cutest Dogs Ever

Internet famous dog Harlow has a new best friend. His tiny new pal is called Indi and they have lots of fun together. Funny thing is that it appears that the two are taking selfies, like they have a sense of awareness of posing for the camera.... and yes, they are the best of friends.

There's Wind & Water In My Stocks

https://www.clsa.com/special/FSI/2014/the-index.cfm

The CLSA feng shui chart has garnered a wide following thanks to its uncanny predictions. Just Have a look at last year's chart prediction ... it was pretty close.

2013

CLSA, Asia’s leading independent brokerage and investment group, today launches its 20th annual CLSA Feng Shui Index – a tongue-in-cheek financial forecast for the coming Year of the Wood Horse, with a focus on the Hang Seng Index, key market sectors, world leaders and celebrities, and each of the 12 Chinese zodiac signs. All based on little more than a whisper of wind (feng) and a babble of water (shui).

How do we see the bourse under the influence of the Horse? We conclude that this Pony is un toro in toto - pure bull from teeth to tail. Its fortune chart may not be the best balanced, but it is full of Fire - the intrinsic element that’s widely regarded as the driver of investor sentiment.

This is especially so for the Hang Seng Index, as Fire is also its “lucky element”. We uncovered so many unexpected connections, coincidences and links between the HSI and this Wood Horse that we discern a definite Casablanca connection - ‘the beginning of a beautiful friendship’. And one that should be very rewarding. Our “pure bull” forecast sees the index hit 28,105.

Positive, powerful and race-paced - there’s much to like about the Horse. It’s also well positioned: At No.7 in the zodiac, the Horse kicks off the second half of the 12-year cycle. Traditionally, the vital force or energy known as qi is considered to be spent or stale half-way through a cycle - the Horse heralds the arrival of the so-called second wind - a burst of invigorating fresh qi.

Once again, this year’s CLSA Feng Shui Index features a month-by-month guide to the HSI, the outlook for key sectors, four-sphere forecasts for each zodiac sign, our popular Hong Kong property guide, and fates of some famous faces – the likes of US Fed chair apparent Janet Yellen, Japan’s Shinzo Abe, Alibaba’s Jack Ma Yun and futbol capital Rio de Janeiro.

Our Sector-selector Element Detector suggests we’ll see the best performances from businesses associated with Wood (retail, soft commodities, plantations . . . plantations?) and also Fire (the likes of internet, tech, telecoms, some oil & gas and power suppliers).

Among the zodiac signs, the Horse favours Tigers, Sheep (Goats) and Dogs. Those that may be in for a more challenging ride are Rats, Cows and Rabbits. But then pluck beats luck every time. Kung hei fat choi! And may the Horse be with you.

Stock market investors are set to ride high in the year of the galloping "wooden horse" as the Hang Seng Index soars to 28,105, brokerage CLSA said in its yearly tongue-in-check forecast for the coming lunar new year.
The HSI closed at 23,082 yesterday. So, according to CLSA's Feng Shui Index 2014 forecast, it will climb more than 5,000 points in a little more than 11 months.

"Horses are brave and honest. They bring energy and drive to the market," said Emily Lam Tim-yi, an institutional saleswoman at CLSA.

The brokerage said the Year of the Horse will be "full of fire" that "could take up the lead and drive up market sentiment in the first half ... with the exception of April when the horse will lack fire."

After peaking in July, a lack of fire will precipitate a dip in the local equity market in August and September and it will stay volatile until the end of the year, said CLSA analyst Mariana Kou Chun-yin.

According to the Feng Shui Index 2014 forecast, sectors related to wood and fire will outperform.

"They include retail, media, soft commodities, internet and tech and oil and gas industries," said Lam. "But stay away from the metal and earth elements including the autos, banking, building and property and resources sectors."

She added: "Gaming and hotel stocks, which have jumped significantly this year, will shed their luster a bit."

Coincidentally, Casino operator Galaxy Entertainment Group (0027) - the best performing blue chip last year - drop

ped 5.5 percent yesterday after a JPMorgan Chase recommended investors trim their exposure to Macau gaming companies.

CLSA also warned investors not to venture too far into property stocks.

"We should be ready for the elbow of evil this year," warned Jackson Hui Lap-yin, research associate of the property team.

CLSA earlier forecast local home prices will drop 10 percent this year and 5 percent next year.

Hui said an "evil shroud" will cover the northwestern part of the New Territories and eastern part of Hong Kong island.

And the outlook for property in Yuen Long and Long Ping is "filled with horror" as more land supplies are expected there.

Quarry Bay, Tai Koo Shing, Siu Sai Wan, Sheung Wan and Kennedy Town - where home prices have surged in the past few years - may see them fall.

And properties in Lung Kwu Tan, Tuen Mun, Pok Fu Lam, Mount Davis and Aberdeen will offer lukewarm return.

But last year's forecasts for the soon-to-be-concluded Year of the Snake have been somewhat off the mark.

CLSA said last year that it expected the HSI to rise to as high as 26,000 points. But the index rose as high as 24,111 points.

But Kou took the discrepancies in her stride, saying the brokerage has been issuing the Feng Shui Index forecasts for more than 20 years and it is inevitable that in some years, they will be slightly off.

The 2014 chart IS SURPRISINGLY POSITIVE considering the many headwinds that experts are predicting for 2014. Naturally we all do wish that the wind and water forces will be greater than the feeble minds of mere mortals.

 2014