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Wednesday, 6 October 2010
Marketocracy Portfolio Updated - October 6, 2010
Tuesday, 5 October 2010
Most Innovative Cities
This is an interesting survey. Innovation takes many forms, basically it allows for being creative, entrepreneurial and combusting corporate activity in certain industries. To be fair, one city cannot be innovative across a range of industries. To that end, Malaysia is not hopeless, we are doing some things right but there is still a lot to be done.
In my view, the government has to be entrepreneurial to start with, esp in Malaysia as the state governments are NOT empowered enough to do so on their own (they should be) unlike the states in the USA.
To simplify: take what is our natural strengths ~ palm oil, timber, oil & gas, Islamic finance ... then proactively encourage innovation and support industries in each sector, go upstream and downstream. Instead of just exporting palm oil, nurture companies and creativity for that source product upstream and downstream. This can be done by ensuring world class universities and research labs in oil & gas, palm oil, etc...
Create supporting financial network via private equity, venture cap firms that are focused on those industries. Create a viable exit for them via financial markets (e.g. AIM, Catalist, ACE).
Digital economy ~ the faster, broader, cheaper the connectivity and access the better. Tax holidays and tax breaks as well.
As for an educated pool, we Malaysian have the brains, just go ask Singapore, Silicon Valley, top research labs, top hospitals and global financial centers, they all employ our best and brightest. We just do not have the bridge to the talents to concentrate their potential within Malaysia. It might be too cumbersome to elevate all local universities to global standards, but its easier to create niche research labs and universities that are world class. We need to pay well and allow true professionals to run them.
Financially competitive ~ open economy, free floated ringgit, ease of fund raising, haven for angel investors, globally competitive tax and remuneration scale, smooth & fast processing of expats with right qualifications.
We know the solutions, we did try to implement most of them, but the actual running, actual execution of these "empowered units" are still second rate. There has to be absolute professionalism, transparent and with integrity. Not because of connections or because you know who and who.
---------------------------
http://www.smartplanet.com/business/blog/smart-takes/top-10-innovative-cities-boston-leads-world-in-2010-paris-amsterdam-follow/10605/
Australian analyst firm 2thinknow says Beantown leads the world in relative performance in the global innovation economy. That means the city’s actions to facilitate the growth of new industries are opening up a better economic opportunity for talent.
The cities were scored based on 31 common industry and community segments weighted against global trends. A three-factor score (out of 10) measured the cultural assets, human infrastructure and networked markets of a city’s innovation economy. The analysts also incorporated their assessment of market confidence in the cities.
In my view, the government has to be entrepreneurial to start with, esp in Malaysia as the state governments are NOT empowered enough to do so on their own (they should be) unlike the states in the USA.
To simplify: take what is our natural strengths ~ palm oil, timber, oil & gas, Islamic finance ... then proactively encourage innovation and support industries in each sector, go upstream and downstream. Instead of just exporting palm oil, nurture companies and creativity for that source product upstream and downstream. This can be done by ensuring world class universities and research labs in oil & gas, palm oil, etc...
Create supporting financial network via private equity, venture cap firms that are focused on those industries. Create a viable exit for them via financial markets (e.g. AIM, Catalist, ACE).
Digital economy ~ the faster, broader, cheaper the connectivity and access the better. Tax holidays and tax breaks as well.
As for an educated pool, we Malaysian have the brains, just go ask Singapore, Silicon Valley, top research labs, top hospitals and global financial centers, they all employ our best and brightest. We just do not have the bridge to the talents to concentrate their potential within Malaysia. It might be too cumbersome to elevate all local universities to global standards, but its easier to create niche research labs and universities that are world class. We need to pay well and allow true professionals to run them.
Financially competitive ~ open economy, free floated ringgit, ease of fund raising, haven for angel investors, globally competitive tax and remuneration scale, smooth & fast processing of expats with right qualifications.
We know the solutions, we did try to implement most of them, but the actual running, actual execution of these "empowered units" are still second rate. There has to be absolute professionalism, transparent and with integrity. Not because of connections or because you know who and who.
---------------------------
http://www.smartplanet.com/business/blog/smart-takes/top-10-innovative-cities-boston-leads-world-in-2010-paris-amsterdam-follow/10605/
Australian analyst firm 2thinknow says Beantown leads the world in relative performance in the global innovation economy. That means the city’s actions to facilitate the growth of new industries are opening up a better economic opportunity for talent.
The index, which was published on Wednesday and first introduced in 2007, looks at innovation at the individual (creative), business (startups) and city levels.
Rounding out the global top three? Paris and Amsterdam.
Here’s a look at the firm’s Top 30 around the world:
- Boston (USA)
- Paris (France)
- Amsterdam (Netherlands)
- Vienna (Austria)
- New York (USA)
- Frankfurt (Germany)
- San Francisco (USA)
- Copenhagen (Denmark)
- Lyon (France)
- Hamburg (Germany)
- Berlin (Germany)
- Toronto (Canada)
- Stuttgart (Germany)
- London (UK)
- Munich (Germany)
- Milan (Italy)
- Stockholm (Sweden)
- Hong Kong (China)
- Melbourne (Australia)
- Tokyo (Japan)
- Rome (Italy)
- Kyoto (Japan)
- Washington, D.C. (USA)
- Shanghai (China)
- Düsseldorf (Germany)
- Barcelona (Spain)
- Seoul (South Korea)
- Sydney (Australia)
- Prague (Czech Republic)
- Philadelphia (USA)
The cities were scored based on 31 common industry and community segments weighted against global trends. A three-factor score (out of 10) measured the cultural assets, human infrastructure and networked markets of a city’s innovation economy. The analysts also incorporated their assessment of market confidence in the cities.
Top 20 innovation cities in Asia:
- Hong Kong (China)
- Melbourne (Australia)
- Tokyo (Japan)
- Kyoto (Japan)
- Shanghai (China)
- Seoul (South Korea)
- Sydney (Australia)
- Singapore (Singapore)
- Wellington (New Zealand)
- Auckland (New Zealand)
- Fukuoka (Japan)
- Beijing (China)
- Kobe (Japan)
- Osaka (Japan)
- Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia)
- Mumbai (India)
- Adelaide (Australia)
- Bangalore (India)
- Delhi (India)
- Shenzhen (China)
Thursday, 30 September 2010
Examining Some Rules By Experts
Ask Warren Buffett or Soros, I am sure they will be able to give out a few rules of investing of their own. These rules or as I would prefer to call them pointers have been condensed from their years of experience, from their multitude of success and more probably because of their failure ~ you tend to remember your failures a lot more than your successes.
From the respected Kirk Report, he has featured Michael Steinhardt's rules of investing which I have pasted below. Kirk himself has come up with 7 rules of his own as well. My comments in brackets.
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3) Be intellectually competitive. This involves doing constant research on subjects that make you money. The trick, he says, in plowing through such data is to be able to sense a major change coming in a situation before anyone else. (This I agree totally. Many will sit back and wait for others to tell them what is likely to happen ~ then you are just a follower, and that is only as good as the person you are listening to. The other aspect of this is that many will only react after the event. We may not be always correct but we should have a view on important things, we may even change and modify them when we have fresh information or data, but we should have a view. In terms of investing, if you were asked, is there a property bubble in Asia, will it burst, where is oil headed, are we in for a double dip, whats your view on the dollar and ringgit ... we should already have an opinion. We may not need to share all opinions we have with everyone as that would be reckless and naive. If you were to ask Soros or Buffett what do they think gold is headed for the next 12 months ~ I am willing to bet that they are very likely to say "what do you think". That is the smart way to engage in a fair intellectual discourse, its good to bring something to the table and not just a sponge to take and soak only. If the other person comes back with a satisfying view, I wouldn't mind sharing my view gladly. I get asked about stocks and market direction all the time, naturally its a tiring charade and one way, which I do not appreciate. If you meet Chua Ma Yu, would you ask him what stocks to buy straight out??? Why should he tell you? Do not behave like a sponger, its self defeating. Always bring something to the table).
4) Make good decisions even with incomplete information. In the real world, he argues, investors never have all the data they need before they put their money at risk. You will never have all the information you need. What matters is what you do with the information you have. Do your homework and focus on the facts that matter most in any investing situation. (This is critical as well. I know too many who will wait and wait to gather all information before acting on an investment decision. I am not advocating reckless behaviour but markets will never provide full information. Some will only wait till they have covered 90% of the parameters. Learn to distinguish the really important variables. Learn to make decisions with maybe 60%-70%).
5) Always trust your intuition. For him, intuition is more than just a hunch. He says intuition resembles a hidden supercomputer in the mind that you’re not even aware is there. It can help you do the right thing at the right time if you give it a chance. In fact, over time your own trading experience will help develop your intuition so that major pitfalls can be avoided.
6) Don’t make small investments. You only have so much time and energy so when you put your money in play. So, if you’re going to put money at risk, make sure the reward is high enough to justify it.
 |
From the respected Kirk Report, he has featured Michael Steinhardt's rules of investing which I have pasted below. Kirk himself has come up with 7 rules of his own as well. My comments in brackets.
-----------------------
Kirk Report: Michael Steinhardt is considered one of the most successful hedge fund managers. One dollar invested with Steinhardt Partners LP, his flagship hedge fund, at its launch in 1967 would have been worth $481 when Steinhardt retired in 1995.
He provided six rules in order to become a successful hedge fund manager. Since I think the same apply to all investors, not just those who run hedge funds, I decided to provide them for you as well. They include the following:
1) Make all your mistakes early in life. He says the more tough lessons you learn early on, the fewer errors you make later. A common mistake of all young investors is to be too trusting with brokers, analysts, and newsletters who are trying to sell you bad stocks. (LOL, I had to laugh, not to mock but in total agreement, we all have made our share of mistakes. In my case I have lost more than my net worth and still owed some, thankfully it was when I was in my early 30s, which provided sufficient time to claw oneself back above ground. But how to make sure we make our mistakes early and not later in life? I guess its to remember our failures and not to repeat them. If we always refuse to accept responsibility for our failures, we will be doomed to repeat them. One major flaw in some people is to project their failures on "the lack of luck", or "an unfortunate twist in events" ... all of which is to diminish the ability to own up on our failures, and to attribute blame on others and other things so as to make themselves feel better. We all know so many who fall into that category, and we can almost see how that limits their ability to self-actualise).
2) Always make your living doing something you enjoy. This way, you devote your full intensity to it which is required for success over the long-term.
4) Make good decisions even with incomplete information. In the real world, he argues, investors never have all the data they need before they put their money at risk. You will never have all the information you need. What matters is what you do with the information you have. Do your homework and focus on the facts that matter most in any investing situation. (This is critical as well. I know too many who will wait and wait to gather all information before acting on an investment decision. I am not advocating reckless behaviour but markets will never provide full information. Some will only wait till they have covered 90% of the parameters. Learn to distinguish the really important variables. Learn to make decisions with maybe 60%-70%).
5) Always trust your intuition. For him, intuition is more than just a hunch. He says intuition resembles a hidden supercomputer in the mind that you’re not even aware is there. It can help you do the right thing at the right time if you give it a chance. In fact, over time your own trading experience will help develop your intuition so that major pitfalls can be avoided.
6) Don’t make small investments. You only have so much time and energy so when you put your money in play. So, if you’re going to put money at risk, make sure the reward is high enough to justify it.
* This report was originally published by The Kirk Report on June 2, 2004.
---------------------------In celebration of my 7th anniversary, I would like to share with you 7 simple things I think you can do to improve your performance in the markets for the remainder of the year:
Stop believing the market is logical – The market is primarily moved by both perception and emotion far more than reality or logic. Trade what you see, not what you think you should or want to see. There’s a reason why most people stink at trading as they fail to understand that markets are often illogical and influenced by emotion rather than reality. Whenever possible, try to adopt and hold an “opportunistic” mindset rather than a dominant bullish or bearish posture.
Concentrate your holdings – If you have more than 5 to 10 positions in your portfolio, you are hindering your performance without even realizing it. With the availability of ETFs now, you can diversify as much as you need. Likewise, even if the best of environments, you probably should only be able to find a handful of really good opportunities that offer the most upside with the least amount of risk. Frankly, if you are able to find more than that, then you really don’t understand what it means to find a true low risk/high reward opportunity! (This I agree to a certain extent. As an individual you have to learn to narrow your potshots to less than 5. We all know our aunties who have 20 to 30 stocks, never cutting losses ~ its a meaningless unfocused strategy).
Stop chasing performance – The very best opportunities before you now are in stocks and sectors that no one is talking about or even knows to look at. Likewise, stop looking to chase the hot hand of others. The media and far too many investors are always focused on what is working well now and who is making the most money while the best opportunities are frequently elsewhere. Go where the market is quiet and which no one is interested in and you’ll find more opportunity. In addition, being patient when you don’t find anything that really fits your eye is more than half of the battle.
Turn off the noise – Information may be the world’s most precious commodity, but 99% of the information at your disposal is not. In today’s age of real-time information, opinions, analysis, etc. it is my strong belief that information overload and noise is hindering performance far more than it is helping. The first step is to stop watching all TV and to place severe restrictions on all media. In addition, to perform better this year you must stop wasting time on seeking out advice and opinions that only serve to confirm what you really want to hear in order to justify your positions. If anything, what time you spend in social media should be devoted to looking for ideas that challenge your positions and/or offer unique insight you can really learn something from. (Totally agree. 10 minutes of CNBC a day is more than sufficient. If you go to an hour or more, you would be listening to 10 different experts with 10 opinions, and the anchors will always say to you to stay tuned next as they have another big issue to address).
Understand your limitations and strengths – Not everyone can be a short-term trader nor do they have to be. The mistake that many make is copying another’s strategy that doesn’t fit them nor one they truly understand. This is why they also readily abandon those strategies when the pressure is on which really hurts performance. So, figure out how much time you can devote, what skills you already have, and formulate a strategy that works best for you based on that. Keep in mind also that the best strategies are often so simple that you should be able to explain how they work to those who aren’t intimately involved in the markets.
Accept you will make many mistakes – Those who learn how to minimize the damage when they are wrong and who readily own up to the mistakes they make will do far better over the long haul. Making mistakes is a part of this game, but knowing how to handle them is everything. Likewise, if you attach your ego to your
portfolio’s performance you are destined for failure. The market absolutely loves to kill those with big giant egos and who look for the markets as a place to prove how smart they are. Markets chew and spit out these folks routinely for good reason and they will continue to do so at every available opportunity.Become a specialist, not a jack of all trades – You don’t have to know everything about everything to do well. In fact, those who focus on a specific setup, chart pattern, program pattern, industry group, or even just trade only one ETF frequently perform far better than those who know a lot about a lot of things but have no real discernible edge. I run into people all of the time who know a great many things, but are not an expert of any one thing and that is to their clear disadvantage. So, find something that interests you more than anything else and concentrate all of your time and focus on that one thing. That path will lead you to developing an clear edge that will provide huge profits to you down the line.
Wednesday, 29 September 2010
APPLE Going For Number ONE
Ten years ago, if you asked 1,000 investors to pick out 5 stocks that would be possibly the biggest company in the world, I doubt very much Apple would be even on any of the shortlist. Now Apple looks likely to be near enough to overtake Exxon Mobil. Its fascinating, one company has billions in real assets in the ground and millions of tons of expensive heavy machinery. The other just have Steve Jobs. Now both are jostling for the bragging rights to be the world's biggest company in market cap.
One would have thought Microsoft had a shot 20 years ago, or even Google had a shot 3 years ago. Don't worry, you will know exactly when Apple overtakes Exxon .... all the media will be blaring out that momentous occasion.
Bespoke Investment Group: A year or so ago, Apple (AAPL) eclipsing Microsoft (MSFT) in size was starting to look possible. It became reality a few months ago. Now Apple has its sights on Exxon Mobil (XOM) as the biggest company in the world. Below is a chart of the market caps for Apple and Exxon Mobil going back to 2000. As recently as 2008, the comparison between the two was laughable. Now they're nearly on par with each other and rank as the #1 and #2 biggest companies in the world. A move into the $300s for Apple and some sideways action for Exxon would make Apple #1.
One would have thought Microsoft had a shot 20 years ago, or even Google had a shot 3 years ago. Don't worry, you will know exactly when Apple overtakes Exxon .... all the media will be blaring out that momentous occasion.
Bespoke Investment Group: A year or so ago, Apple (AAPL) eclipsing Microsoft (MSFT) in size was starting to look possible. It became reality a few months ago. Now Apple has its sights on Exxon Mobil (XOM) as the biggest company in the world. Below is a chart of the market caps for Apple and Exxon Mobil going back to 2000. As recently as 2008, the comparison between the two was laughable. Now they're nearly on par with each other and rank as the #1 and #2 biggest companies in the world. A move into the $300s for Apple and some sideways action for Exxon would make Apple #1.
Imagine the question mark that would have popped up in your head had someone said 10 years ago that Apple would be the biggest company in the world but still have less than 10% of the PC market? There isn't a "pc" in "biggest," but there surely is an "i".
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Wednesday, 22 September 2010
The Economic Transformation Program
My verdict: Good to Pretty Good. Liked the fact that PEMANDU is there, supposedly to ensure proper execution of the projects.
Among the key projects, we understand that the RM36bn KL MRT, which features in the Greater Kuala Lumpur plan, has received high level of commitment – increasing the likelihood of the project’s approval. Potential beneficiaries: Gamuda (High Conviction Pick; TP: RM4.35), MMC (Buy; TP: RM3.20).
The Rubber Research Institute (RRI) project was also included. Potential beneficiaries: MRCB (High Conviction Pick; TP: RM2.25), WCT (Buy; TP: RM3.60).
Other mega projects include the previously shelved RM8bn high speed train to Singapore (potential beneficiary: YTL Corp; Not Rated) and the Klang river project (potential beneficiaries: SP Setia (Buy; TP RM4.80), YTL Power (Hold; TP: RM2.50), MRCB).
The drive to improve Kuala Lumpur’s attractiveness would also benefit large landowners in the greater KL area such as SP Setia, Bolton (Buy; TP: RM1.50) and DNP (Buy; TP: RM2.25).
Implementation is key. There will definitely be major challenges to some of the initiatives. Implementation is a key test for the ETP. In our opinion, Senator Dato Sri Idris Jala and PEMANDU’s (Performance Management and Delivery Unit) role in facilitating implementation would help enhance the likelihood of success. Successful execution of the ETP would help transform the country and attract investments.
Sector Initiative Potential beneficiaries
Greater KL KL MRT - received high level of commitment Gamuda, MMC
Rubber Research Institute project MRCB, WCT
High speed train to Singapore YTL Corp
Klang river project SP Setia, YTL Power, MRCB
Initiatives to make KL more attractive SP Setia, Bolton, DNP
Oil, gas & energy LNG regasification plant KNM, Dialog, Kencana
Financial services Create regional champion Maybank
Improve capital markets Bursa Msia
Promote bond market Maybank
Business Services Increase level of skilled workforce Jobstreet
Health services Promote generic drug manufacturing and export Pharmaniaga
Education Push for health services education Masterskill
Source: PEMANDU, HwangDBS Vickers Research
ETP: Macro takeaways
NKEA projects will achieve economic growth of 6%
A high income nation with GNI per capita of USD15,000 by 2020
The NKEAs will contribute over 73% of Malaysia’s GNI (USD523 billion in 2020)
92% of funding for the projects will come from private investment and only 8% from public funding
Will generate an additional 3.3 m jobs, over 60% will be in medium-income or high-income salary brackets
NKEA Labs feature 131 EPPs and 60 Business Opportunities
Source: PEMANDU, HwangDBS Vickers Research
Construction sector
From the EPPs (Entry Point Projects) for Greater KL, there were several projects that will provide opportunities for contractors.
MRT – Gamuda and MMC are potential beneficiaries of the project. Gamuda’s orderbook could double and MMC’s triple, but we believe the sector will benefit given the sheer size of the RM36bn project. Among the key projects, we understand that this project has received high level of commitment – increasing likelihood of the project’s approval.
High Speed Rail (HSR) – This RM8bn project was initially proposed in 2008 but put on hold. The lab recommended a study by Land Public Transport Commission (SPAD) and Economic Planning Unit (EPU) to determine the feasibility of the project with results to be tabled to the Cabinet by
January 2011. Potential beneficiary: YTL Corp (Not rated).
Klang river project – In March 2010, the Selangor government appointed three companies to carry out the project that was expected to attract RM50bn worth of investments. Potential beneficiary: YTL Power (Hold; TP: RM2.50), MRCB.
In addition, the Rubber Research Institute (RRI) project was among projects included in the Greater KL National Key Economic Area (NKEA). Potential beneficiaries: MRCB (High
Conviction Pick; TP: RM2.25), WCT (Buy; TP: RM3.60).
Property sector
The “Greater KL” NKEA aims to improve KL’s ranking to one of the Top 20 most liveable cities and economic cities in the world by 2020 (currently ranked 79/130 in recent quality of life survey). Initiatives proposed include:
a) Foreign magnet: Attracting 100 of the world’s top MNCs & high-skilled immigration;
b) Improved connectivity: High-speed rail to Singapore, MRT (integrated urban rail system);
c) New attractions: Rejuvenation of rivers, greener KL, iconic places; and
d) Enhanced services: Pedestrian network, solid waste management.
PEMANDU expects KL population to balloon to 10m by 2010 from 6.5m currently, creating demand for 1m new homes. Areas identified to benefit the most from transformation of KL:
a) High-impact: RMAF base @ Sungai Besi, Dataran Perdana, MATRADE @ Hartamas, RRIM @ Sungai Buloh, Kampung Baru
b) Ripe for redevelopment: Bukit Bintang, Pusat Bandar Damansara, Dataran Sunway, 1 Utama, Subang Bestari, Balakong, Serdang
Aside from GLC/Bumi developers tipped to benefit from government land redevelopment (eg MRCB, Boustead, Bolton, SP Setia, Mah Sing), owners of large landbank and investment assets in KL should also stand to benefit.
Oil and gas
PEMANDU has identified 12 EPPs and 7 BOs (Business Opportunities) for the oil, gas and energy sector under the NKEA. A 3 pronged area of focus – sustain, grow and diversify. The EPPs and BOs are expected to bring about RM76.8bn in GNI (Gross National Income) and create 52,000 jobs by 2020.
Several of the broader initiatives presented included PETRONAS strategies such as enhancing oil recovery in existing fields, developing smaller fields, and the construction of a LNG regasification terminal to meet the nation’s gas demand. However, what we understand that is making the difference is the role that PEMANDU will be playing to ensure smooth and effective implementation of the said EPPs. This, we believe, would be the critical factor leading to the success of the program.
Based on the roadmap shown by PEMANDU, we understand that the government is looking to receive its first LNG imports into the country by 2013. This would mean that the tender for the LNG regasification plant could be out as early as the beginning of 2011, assuming 2 years of construction.
We see KNM Group (Hold; TP: RM0.55), Kencana Petroleum (Not Rated), and Dialog (Not Rated), as potential beneficiaries to the project. The initiatives highlighted include the 10m cubic metres oil storage terminal in the works spearheaded by Dialog and Vopak in Pengarang, Johor. The development of small fields and enhancement of oil recovery should benefit a handful of local oil & gas players.
Tanjung Offshore (Hold; TP: RM1.60) could stand to gain under its engineering and marine divisions while both Alam Maritim (Buy; TP: RM1.40) and Petra Perdana (Fully Valued; TP: RM1.00) could benefit under their OSV operations.
Among the key projects, we understand that the RM36bn KL MRT, which features in the Greater Kuala Lumpur plan, has received high level of commitment – increasing the likelihood of the project’s approval. Potential beneficiaries: Gamuda (High Conviction Pick; TP: RM4.35), MMC (Buy; TP: RM3.20).
The Rubber Research Institute (RRI) project was also included. Potential beneficiaries: MRCB (High Conviction Pick; TP: RM2.25), WCT (Buy; TP: RM3.60).
Other mega projects include the previously shelved RM8bn high speed train to Singapore (potential beneficiary: YTL Corp; Not Rated) and the Klang river project (potential beneficiaries: SP Setia (Buy; TP RM4.80), YTL Power (Hold; TP: RM2.50), MRCB).
The drive to improve Kuala Lumpur’s attractiveness would also benefit large landowners in the greater KL area such as SP Setia, Bolton (Buy; TP: RM1.50) and DNP (Buy; TP: RM2.25).
Implementation is key. There will definitely be major challenges to some of the initiatives. Implementation is a key test for the ETP. In our opinion, Senator Dato Sri Idris Jala and PEMANDU’s (Performance Management and Delivery Unit) role in facilitating implementation would help enhance the likelihood of success. Successful execution of the ETP would help transform the country and attract investments.
Sector Initiative Potential beneficiaries
Greater KL KL MRT - received high level of commitment Gamuda, MMC
Rubber Research Institute project MRCB, WCT
High speed train to Singapore YTL Corp
Klang river project SP Setia, YTL Power, MRCB
Initiatives to make KL more attractive SP Setia, Bolton, DNP
Oil, gas & energy LNG regasification plant KNM, Dialog, Kencana
Financial services Create regional champion Maybank
Improve capital markets Bursa Msia
Promote bond market Maybank
Business Services Increase level of skilled workforce Jobstreet
Health services Promote generic drug manufacturing and export Pharmaniaga
Education Push for health services education Masterskill
Source: PEMANDU, HwangDBS Vickers Research
ETP: Macro takeaways
NKEA projects will achieve economic growth of 6%
A high income nation with GNI per capita of USD15,000 by 2020
The NKEAs will contribute over 73% of Malaysia’s GNI (USD523 billion in 2020)
92% of funding for the projects will come from private investment and only 8% from public funding
Will generate an additional 3.3 m jobs, over 60% will be in medium-income or high-income salary brackets
NKEA Labs feature 131 EPPs and 60 Business Opportunities
Source: PEMANDU, HwangDBS Vickers Research
Construction sector
From the EPPs (Entry Point Projects) for Greater KL, there were several projects that will provide opportunities for contractors.
MRT – Gamuda and MMC are potential beneficiaries of the project. Gamuda’s orderbook could double and MMC’s triple, but we believe the sector will benefit given the sheer size of the RM36bn project. Among the key projects, we understand that this project has received high level of commitment – increasing likelihood of the project’s approval.
High Speed Rail (HSR) – This RM8bn project was initially proposed in 2008 but put on hold. The lab recommended a study by Land Public Transport Commission (SPAD) and Economic Planning Unit (EPU) to determine the feasibility of the project with results to be tabled to the Cabinet by
January 2011. Potential beneficiary: YTL Corp (Not rated).
Klang river project – In March 2010, the Selangor government appointed three companies to carry out the project that was expected to attract RM50bn worth of investments. Potential beneficiary: YTL Power (Hold; TP: RM2.50), MRCB.
In addition, the Rubber Research Institute (RRI) project was among projects included in the Greater KL National Key Economic Area (NKEA). Potential beneficiaries: MRCB (High
Conviction Pick; TP: RM2.25), WCT (Buy; TP: RM3.60).
Property sector
The “Greater KL” NKEA aims to improve KL’s ranking to one of the Top 20 most liveable cities and economic cities in the world by 2020 (currently ranked 79/130 in recent quality of life survey). Initiatives proposed include:
a) Foreign magnet: Attracting 100 of the world’s top MNCs & high-skilled immigration;
b) Improved connectivity: High-speed rail to Singapore, MRT (integrated urban rail system);
c) New attractions: Rejuvenation of rivers, greener KL, iconic places; and
d) Enhanced services: Pedestrian network, solid waste management.
PEMANDU expects KL population to balloon to 10m by 2010 from 6.5m currently, creating demand for 1m new homes. Areas identified to benefit the most from transformation of KL:
a) High-impact: RMAF base @ Sungai Besi, Dataran Perdana, MATRADE @ Hartamas, RRIM @ Sungai Buloh, Kampung Baru
b) Ripe for redevelopment: Bukit Bintang, Pusat Bandar Damansara, Dataran Sunway, 1 Utama, Subang Bestari, Balakong, Serdang
Aside from GLC/Bumi developers tipped to benefit from government land redevelopment (eg MRCB, Boustead, Bolton, SP Setia, Mah Sing), owners of large landbank and investment assets in KL should also stand to benefit.
Oil and gas
PEMANDU has identified 12 EPPs and 7 BOs (Business Opportunities) for the oil, gas and energy sector under the NKEA. A 3 pronged area of focus – sustain, grow and diversify. The EPPs and BOs are expected to bring about RM76.8bn in GNI (Gross National Income) and create 52,000 jobs by 2020.
Several of the broader initiatives presented included PETRONAS strategies such as enhancing oil recovery in existing fields, developing smaller fields, and the construction of a LNG regasification terminal to meet the nation’s gas demand. However, what we understand that is making the difference is the role that PEMANDU will be playing to ensure smooth and effective implementation of the said EPPs. This, we believe, would be the critical factor leading to the success of the program.
Based on the roadmap shown by PEMANDU, we understand that the government is looking to receive its first LNG imports into the country by 2013. This would mean that the tender for the LNG regasification plant could be out as early as the beginning of 2011, assuming 2 years of construction.
We see KNM Group (Hold; TP: RM0.55), Kencana Petroleum (Not Rated), and Dialog (Not Rated), as potential beneficiaries to the project. The initiatives highlighted include the 10m cubic metres oil storage terminal in the works spearheaded by Dialog and Vopak in Pengarang, Johor. The development of small fields and enhancement of oil recovery should benefit a handful of local oil & gas players.
Tanjung Offshore (Hold; TP: RM1.60) could stand to gain under its engineering and marine divisions while both Alam Maritim (Buy; TP: RM1.40) and Petra Perdana (Fully Valued; TP: RM1.00) could benefit under their OSV operations.
Tuesday, 21 September 2010
HSBC Musical Chairs, Grow Up Old White Boys!
HSBC Holdings chairman Stephen Green (British descent) resigned from his position to become trade minister for the UK government. That's all fine and dandy. Thus the chairman's position is now vacant.
Michael Geoghegan (British descent), who replaced Green as CEO in 2006, is expecting to be promoted to the chairmanship position. However, rumours are now swirling that he might be passed over for that position and may just remain as CEO only.
The favourite to be the new chairman of HSBC is John Thornton (an American) joined HSBC as a non-executive chairman of its North American unit in December 2008, six months after division pushed the bank into the biggest writedowns in its history. The bank has since set aside more than $58 billion to cover bad loans made by its subprime lender Household International, which it purchased in 2003.
HSBC's chief executive Michael Geoghegan now has threatened to quit if he is not promoted to chairman, as the battle for the top job at the bank intensifies. What kind of crap is this? Michael, you are already CEO of HSBC .... HSBC, what other building blocks in life do you want to tick off your fucking wish list? Having sex with Japanese triplet sisters???
Michael, why are you jeopardising the entire HSBC operations by threatening to leave. Where is the company before self thing? This is all me, me, me ... Its obviously not the salary as the CEO will get paid a lot more than the chairman, so its the power. You had to kowtow to Green before as Green was the ex-CEO before being made chairman, but you are not willing to report to any other person as chairman as none were ex-CEOs before. Why the tight ass attitude after reaching the altitude?
Michael, even if you get the chairmanship NOW, what kind of respect will you be getting from your colleagues and staff, what will they be whispering behind your back?
If Geoghegan resigns, the favorite to replace him as CEO is Stuart Gulliver, head of the company’s investment bank.
Talking about being pissed off, now this was reported in one of the UK papers:
"HSBC “will be looking to balance out the board between having a British CEO and non-British chairman or vice versa,” said Colin McLean, who manages £650 million at SVM Asset Management in Edinburgh, including HSBC shares."
What kind of crapula is this? I thought HK shooed away the colonial masters since the 90s. Yes, we still have the Jardines reaping their profits from recycling ill gotten gains from Asia 50-100 years ago, and now has "washed clean" the dirty money to own brilliant companies and buildings in Asia. "LOOKING TO BALANCE between a British CEO and a non-British chairman or vice versa".
B.S. Please turn over your share register and see who are HSBC main shareholders, they are mostly not British anymore. HSBC is an Asian bank with a small far flung operations elsewhere. Why is HSBC like Ye Smokehouse Grill or an old English pub with "members only" sign at the door.
You want to be an Asian and get into the higher echelons of HSBC management ~ first get a fucking British degree, not just any degree mind you, has to be Oxford, Cambridge or London School of Economics ... helps if you are from a top private school and plays cricket or rows well, ok then at least know cricket and rugby well enough to hold a decent conversation. Must like beer, warm beer preferably. Dresses conservatively but from Savile Row bespoke. Finally you must know at least 5 white British dudes (dudes only) who are currently holding positions as Managing Director (SVP) or higher in HSBC or other banks/ securities firms (preferably related as well).
So fuck off with the must have one British as CEO or chairman shit, or we will get Agriculture Bank of China and State Bank of India to take over HSBC. ... Other than that, how was your day?
Michael Geoghegan (British descent), who replaced Green as CEO in 2006, is expecting to be promoted to the chairmanship position. However, rumours are now swirling that he might be passed over for that position and may just remain as CEO only.
The favourite to be the new chairman of HSBC is John Thornton (an American) joined HSBC as a non-executive chairman of its North American unit in December 2008, six months after division pushed the bank into the biggest writedowns in its history. The bank has since set aside more than $58 billion to cover bad loans made by its subprime lender Household International, which it purchased in 2003.
HSBC's chief executive Michael Geoghegan now has threatened to quit if he is not promoted to chairman, as the battle for the top job at the bank intensifies. What kind of crap is this? Michael, you are already CEO of HSBC .... HSBC, what other building blocks in life do you want to tick off your fucking wish list? Having sex with Japanese triplet sisters???
Michael, why are you jeopardising the entire HSBC operations by threatening to leave. Where is the company before self thing? This is all me, me, me ... Its obviously not the salary as the CEO will get paid a lot more than the chairman, so its the power. You had to kowtow to Green before as Green was the ex-CEO before being made chairman, but you are not willing to report to any other person as chairman as none were ex-CEOs before. Why the tight ass attitude after reaching the altitude?
Mr Geoghegan was angered by the suggestion that he might be passed over for the role at Europe's biggest bank during a meeting last week. He was told the board was not ready to give him the chairmanship and he was not happy. The way he reacted, the board would be absolutely right NOT to give him the chairmanship. What a petulant old boy? Probably an only child who still can throw tantrums when he is 56. What next, kick an old lady in her shins when you leave the HSBC building just because you were in a foul mood?
The role of chairman at Asia-focused HSBC opened up when the incumbent, Stephen Green, was appointed Britain's trade minister earlier this month. He will take up his new role in early 2011. The decision about the succession is due to be made at a board meeting in Shanghai next Tuesday.
HSBC has traditionally elevated its chief executive to chairman and Hong Kong-based Geoghegan, 56, would not be happy to see another chairman appointed over the top of him. He would be especially angered if the current favourite, former Goldman Sachs banker John Thornton, won the top job. What is this ... entitlement ... like some knighthood if you serve the correct ministries for the correct amount of time??? Michael probably has this sense of entitlement, which is so archaic. Be a professional, do not threaten .... if you do not like they way you are treated, just resign, be a MAN. Why fuck around pouting like a demented child missing his medication.Michael, even if you get the chairmanship NOW, what kind of respect will you be getting from your colleagues and staff, what will they be whispering behind your back?
If Geoghegan resigns, the favorite to replace him as CEO is Stuart Gulliver, head of the company’s investment bank.
Talking about being pissed off, now this was reported in one of the UK papers:
"HSBC “will be looking to balance out the board between having a British CEO and non-British chairman or vice versa,” said Colin McLean, who manages £650 million at SVM Asset Management in Edinburgh, including HSBC shares."
What kind of crapula is this? I thought HK shooed away the colonial masters since the 90s. Yes, we still have the Jardines reaping their profits from recycling ill gotten gains from Asia 50-100 years ago, and now has "washed clean" the dirty money to own brilliant companies and buildings in Asia. "LOOKING TO BALANCE between a British CEO and a non-British chairman or vice versa".
B.S. Please turn over your share register and see who are HSBC main shareholders, they are mostly not British anymore. HSBC is an Asian bank with a small far flung operations elsewhere. Why is HSBC like Ye Smokehouse Grill or an old English pub with "members only" sign at the door.
You want to be an Asian and get into the higher echelons of HSBC management ~ first get a fucking British degree, not just any degree mind you, has to be Oxford, Cambridge or London School of Economics ... helps if you are from a top private school and plays cricket or rows well, ok then at least know cricket and rugby well enough to hold a decent conversation. Must like beer, warm beer preferably. Dresses conservatively but from Savile Row bespoke. Finally you must know at least 5 white British dudes (dudes only) who are currently holding positions as Managing Director (SVP) or higher in HSBC or other banks/ securities firms (preferably related as well).
So fuck off with the must have one British as CEO or chairman shit, or we will get Agriculture Bank of China and State Bank of India to take over HSBC. ... Other than that, how was your day?
Warrants 'Renewal' Should Be Abolished
hng has left a new comment on your post "Islamic Finance, Malaysia's Bright Light":
Hi Dali
Can you advice on PJD and PJD-WB? i’ve bought many PJD on hope on its warrant on basis 3 for 8 as well as its upcoming dividend of 5sen (6.6% yield). PJD have slowly show some movement from 71sen to 76sen now, but its PJD-wb move much more from 4.5sen to current 7sen, a gain of >50%!?
As these PJD-wb also entitle 3 for 8 warrant, its implies market price upcoming warrant at least 20sen (7sen x 8 unit) + (2sen x 3 unit) divided by 3 unit.
What is your opinion on both PJD and PJD-WB, should i exchange in order to gain more exposure?
Hng,
You are right and the market is pricing the old warrant correctly, and yes, the new warrant should trade between 20 sen-25 sen. Yes you should exchange and get more exposure. I do not follow PJD but on surface, the company is OK. Recently announced full year's net profit rose 133% to RM52.76m, and has a cash balance of RM104m.
Now lets get to the principles of warrants and why these "clauses" to allow for warrants to be renewed, or renewed via a rights issue should be abolished. Warrants are usually issued together with a bond, which means the warrant is detached (i.e. from a convertible bond). The number of warrants multiplied by the conversion price should equal to the bond amount. Hence the basis for a normal warrant is to get it to be converted so that the premiums paid by those warrant holders who convert into new shares will be collected to pay off the bond eventually.
This works if the company performs well, or rather the share price performs and trades much higher than the exercise price. As the time value dwindles or the gearing dwindles towards 1.0x, the warrant will start moving to the no premium or even discount range. This will bring about investors buying the warrant to convert into shares.
If your exercise price was higher than your mother share price towards the end of the warrant period, nobody will convert and your warrant will find its way towards 1 sen level. If a company's warrants do not get converted, it basically means the company will have to fork out funds to pay off the bond at the end of the loan period, or renew the loan on new terms.
The important reasons why this "renewal" thing should be abolished:
- its not a "structured" or transparent decision, the decision lies with the management and/or board of directors
- some out of money warrants do not get extended, some do, its highly discretionary
- the basic rights of people who buy warrants should be protected here, by allowing "renewal" you make it impossible for warrant holders to sell or buy on full logical calculation
- it gives rise to insider trading of a massive scale if insiders were to collect at 1 sen or 2 sen for the longest time and then announce the warrants being given a new lease of life
Time value and gearing are the cornerstones of valuing a warrant, to suddenly give an out of money warrant an additional 5 or 10 years is a huge gift.
If I bought a warrant at 20 sen with 12 months to expiry and the mother share is 1.00 but the conversion price is 1.30, thats a clear investment as the gearing is stupendous at 5x even though the premium is 50% (20 sen + 1.30 / 1.00). After 6 months, the share price stays the same and the warrant moves to 10 sen. Gearing is 10x now while premium is at 40%, which is very high with just 6 months left.
Say with just 60 days to expiry, and the mother share stays at 1.00, the warrant would have dwindled down to 3 sen or 4 sen as it looks near impossible for the mother share to move more than 30% forward in 60 days. Herein lies the dilemma, when do an astute warrant holder sell??? Should he/she factor in a "maybe" the warrants will be renewed??? That is pure b.s. especially when its so "whimsical and totally at someone's discretion" which you have no privy to!!!
In PJD's case, investors might say its a good thing, especially for those who held onto the warrants. What about the really smart investors who sold at 15 sen, 14 sen, 13, sen, 12 sen, 10 sen, 9 sen, 8 sen, 7 sen, 6 sen, 5 sen, 4 sen, 3 sen, 2 sen and ta-dah 1 sen???? What about their "loss"? Were they stupid, noooo, contrary to that, they were smart and knew how to value and trade a warrant properly. Who gained? The stupid investors who bought all the way down below 5 sen (unless they knew something beforehand).
This is blatantly wrong if you weigh this in terms of basic tenets of investing. There should be no guessing and all must be transparent. I would like to haul up all buyers of PJD warrants below 3 sen, and get to the end owners of those trades, don't you?
I am not implying that there was something sinister about the renewal of PJD warrants but we should safeguard a fair level playing field for investors. Why are there guesswork and doubts about this, they should be removed in order to provide a more transparent investing environment.
To rectify that, the rules should be clear from day one of warrants issuance, that the company WILL renew the warrants if it stays out of money on expiry for another 5 years OR that they WON'T. Isn't that fairer?
c.c. SC and Bursa
-------------------------------
Thanks to a swift comment, I will provide a swift reply in brackets.
Hi Dali
Can you advice on PJD and PJD-WB? i’ve bought many PJD on hope on its warrant on basis 3 for 8 as well as its upcoming dividend of 5sen (6.6% yield). PJD have slowly show some movement from 71sen to 76sen now, but its PJD-wb move much more from 4.5sen to current 7sen, a gain of >50%!?
As these PJD-wb also entitle 3 for 8 warrant, its implies market price upcoming warrant at least 20sen (7sen x 8 unit) + (2sen x 3 unit) divided by 3 unit.
What is your opinion on both PJD and PJD-WB, should i exchange in order to gain more exposure?
Hng,
You are right and the market is pricing the old warrant correctly, and yes, the new warrant should trade between 20 sen-25 sen. Yes you should exchange and get more exposure. I do not follow PJD but on surface, the company is OK. Recently announced full year's net profit rose 133% to RM52.76m, and has a cash balance of RM104m.
Now lets get to the principles of warrants and why these "clauses" to allow for warrants to be renewed, or renewed via a rights issue should be abolished. Warrants are usually issued together with a bond, which means the warrant is detached (i.e. from a convertible bond). The number of warrants multiplied by the conversion price should equal to the bond amount. Hence the basis for a normal warrant is to get it to be converted so that the premiums paid by those warrant holders who convert into new shares will be collected to pay off the bond eventually.
This works if the company performs well, or rather the share price performs and trades much higher than the exercise price. As the time value dwindles or the gearing dwindles towards 1.0x, the warrant will start moving to the no premium or even discount range. This will bring about investors buying the warrant to convert into shares.
If your exercise price was higher than your mother share price towards the end of the warrant period, nobody will convert and your warrant will find its way towards 1 sen level. If a company's warrants do not get converted, it basically means the company will have to fork out funds to pay off the bond at the end of the loan period, or renew the loan on new terms.
The important reasons why this "renewal" thing should be abolished:
- its not a "structured" or transparent decision, the decision lies with the management and/or board of directors
- some out of money warrants do not get extended, some do, its highly discretionary
- the basic rights of people who buy warrants should be protected here, by allowing "renewal" you make it impossible for warrant holders to sell or buy on full logical calculation
- it gives rise to insider trading of a massive scale if insiders were to collect at 1 sen or 2 sen for the longest time and then announce the warrants being given a new lease of life
Time value and gearing are the cornerstones of valuing a warrant, to suddenly give an out of money warrant an additional 5 or 10 years is a huge gift.
If I bought a warrant at 20 sen with 12 months to expiry and the mother share is 1.00 but the conversion price is 1.30, thats a clear investment as the gearing is stupendous at 5x even though the premium is 50% (20 sen + 1.30 / 1.00). After 6 months, the share price stays the same and the warrant moves to 10 sen. Gearing is 10x now while premium is at 40%, which is very high with just 6 months left.
Say with just 60 days to expiry, and the mother share stays at 1.00, the warrant would have dwindled down to 3 sen or 4 sen as it looks near impossible for the mother share to move more than 30% forward in 60 days. Herein lies the dilemma, when do an astute warrant holder sell??? Should he/she factor in a "maybe" the warrants will be renewed??? That is pure b.s. especially when its so "whimsical and totally at someone's discretion" which you have no privy to!!!
In PJD's case, investors might say its a good thing, especially for those who held onto the warrants. What about the really smart investors who sold at 15 sen, 14 sen, 13, sen, 12 sen, 10 sen, 9 sen, 8 sen, 7 sen, 6 sen, 5 sen, 4 sen, 3 sen, 2 sen and ta-dah 1 sen???? What about their "loss"? Were they stupid, noooo, contrary to that, they were smart and knew how to value and trade a warrant properly. Who gained? The stupid investors who bought all the way down below 5 sen (unless they knew something beforehand).
This is blatantly wrong if you weigh this in terms of basic tenets of investing. There should be no guessing and all must be transparent. I would like to haul up all buyers of PJD warrants below 3 sen, and get to the end owners of those trades, don't you?
I am not implying that there was something sinister about the renewal of PJD warrants but we should safeguard a fair level playing field for investors. Why are there guesswork and doubts about this, they should be removed in order to provide a more transparent investing environment.
To rectify that, the rules should be clear from day one of warrants issuance, that the company WILL renew the warrants if it stays out of money on expiry for another 5 years OR that they WON'T. Isn't that fairer?
c.c. SC and Bursa
-------------------------------
Thanks to a swift comment, I will provide a swift reply in brackets.
-
Dali,
Some elaboration to your comments are in order;
PJD-Wb were issued together with a rights issue of shares in 2000, not a bond issue (Doesn't matter, the principles are the same, whether they were a rights issue attached or even totally free warrants in the first place).
PJD-Wb are not being renewed, will expire in Oct '10 after its 10 year life and out of the money.(I use the word renewed in brackets. We all know what I am trying to get at. PJB does not get out of jail card because of some twists here and there. Same principles of transparency are lacking).
The new PJD-Wc is a new issue on a basis of 3:8 to both PJD and PJD-Wb holders for another 10 years at 2 sen, the proposals being interdependent.(Again, does not matter whether it is a 1:1 or 3:8 or even 1:50, the principles have been violated).
PJD does not need the few million Ringgit raised from a cheap new warrants issue. The exercise seems to be an attempt to rescue some value for Wb holders more than anything else. No prizes for deducing who the major holders of Wb are. They are also the major shareholders. (I am not implying PJB needed the money. I wasn't even targeting PJB. I even mentioned how well PJB did in their recent results. It is exactly the creation of value" for major shareholders of the warrant that I am disputing ~ unfair, totally unfair to those who have sold the warrants for the past few weeks or even months).
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