Sunday, 13 June 2010

What People Are Saying About The 10MP

Citi analysts Wei Zheng Kit and Monica Ratnaputri wrote in a June 10, 2010 analysis titled, "Highlights of the 10th Malaysia Plan," that the most important factor of the plan is its actual implementation, given missed targets in the past. The plan calls for a reduction in the budget deficit to 2.8% by 2015. However, the government has missed previous five-year targets. Of the MYR230 billion allocated to development spending, 55% will go to the economic sector, which is an increase over previous five-year plans, 30% to the social sector, 10% to security, and 5% to general administration. On the issues of subsidies, the plan calls for a 3% annual reduction in subsidy spending by 2015, with energy prices based on market conditions by 2015.

http://www.photo4asian.com/img2/Hong-Kong-Female/Nancy-Wu-Ding-Yan/full/1962390342.jpg

Citi analyst Yong Yin Ng wrote in a June 10, 2010 analysis titled, "10MP – Economic Reform: Ready, Set …," that the 10th Malaysia Plan will not move markets at least until the implementation stage. However, the plan lays out a commitment to economic and political reform, even if subsidy reform will be cautious as a result of political challenges. Ng writes that Malaysia needs to transition to an economy driven by productivity growth and domestic competitiveness that is led by the private sector. The targeted sectors in the plan are E&E, palm oil, oil & gas, tourism, agriculture and green technology and financial services, with the services sector as a whole pushing growth forward.

Kevin Brown writes in a June 11, 2010, FT blog post that the 10th Malaysia Plan unveiled on June 10 shies away from specific proposals to deal with the issue of subsidies and affirmative action, two benchmark reforms that would indicate Prime Minister Najib's commitment and ability to implement far-reaching reforms. PM Najib will likely face challenges from his own party, the UMNO, if he moves forward on significant reforms to the affirmative action policies.

http://www.photo4asian.com/img2/Hong-Kong-Female/Nancy-Wu-Ding-Yan/full/0621_00470_079b1.jpg

The Oxford Business Group writes in a June 10, 2010, analysis that the impact of the 10th Malaysia Plan will depend on how well it enhances the role of the private sector while reducing the footprint of the government; protects the more vulnerable segments of society; addresses expensive subsidies; and contributes to the development of human capital.


The 10th Malaysia Plan prioritizes the oil and gas sector as one of the 12 National Key Economic Areas (NKEA) that will drive growth over the next five years, according to a June 11 IHS Global Insight report. The plan calls for focusing on improving oil recovery, transitioning toward more clean energy sources, enhancing energy efficiency and beginning to reduce fuel subsidies.


http://www.photo4asian.com/img2/Hong-Kong-Female/Nancy-Wu-Ding-Yan/full/080930b15_jpg.jpg

I don't have anything to say about the 10MP. Its been there on the table, the mantras are nothing new. Let's see some action on the Approved Permits already; why are there still big projects being "given" without proper tendering in recent months; the list goes on...






Friday, 11 June 2010

BP, Chance Of A Good Trade?

Chance of a lifetime? In a crisis, sentiment will crowd out sensibilities. Has BP fallen enough? Many analysts are trying to calculate the damages from the oil spill. My verdict is investors should carve out their intended exposure into 3 parts, and start buying one third now around $33-$35. Only buy the second parcel if it hits $29 or $37. The last parcel should only be bought when it tries to breach $40. If it continues to fall below $29, wait for $25. I could be writing a long essay on that strategy, but if you sit and think, you should come to why that strategy is sound.


BP has said that it will cover all legitimate claims resulting from the spill. But can it handle a worst case scenario? BP is already spending millions to control the spill, but reparations for economic damage could run into many billions of dollars.

On the income side, BP certainly has the resources to handle a sizable number of claims. The oil company had income last year of $63.4 billion. The total market value of the company currently sits at $142 billion.

Now let's look at the liability risk, starting with just one county. In Harrison county, MS, due north of the spill, the total economic activity at risk is in excess of $1.4 billion. In the just the six counties closest to the oil spill the potential economic activity imperiled by the spill comes to $4.9 billion.

But there are more than 50 counties potentially in harm's way, from the Florida Keys to the coast of Texas - and that's not counting the exposure BP would incur if the oil flows around the Keys and up the East Coast by way of Gulf stream currents. With tar balls showing up now on the Florida keys, that's a possibility that can't be discounted.

Wall Street analysts continue to believe that BP can pay for its mess in the Gulf, although their confidence level has been dinged by the company's inability to stem the spill - and the political fallout. But at $32.20, the shares are still trading at levels last seen 14 years ago.

Spurred by pressure in the U.S. to fully compensate economic victims of the Gulf spill - and by Wednesday's nearly 16 percent stock plunge - BP officials early Thursday reiterated that the company has enough cash to cover the costs of the Gulf spill.

Analysts agree, saying that BP will have around $5 billion this year to pay damages and clean-up costs once dividends and capital expenditures are covered. BP has already spent more than $1.4 billion trying to contain and clean up the oil and pay claims to Gulf coast businesses.

To date, almost 42,000 claims related to the spill have been submitted and more than 20,000 payments already have been made, totaling over $53 million.

Because of BP's strong cash flow, analysts currently doubt that the costs of cleaning up the mess will push the company into bankruptcy. A worst-case scenario for financial damages and penalties is more than $60 billion, which would be paid out over several years.

I suspect in terms of liability, a lot of it can be recovered from insurance and limited liability claims. What the company cannot recover from may be " company standing and reputation" going forward. Once the liability component has been ascertained, I strongly feel that the board will have no choice but to sell to probably Petrochina, the only one with the resources to claim that asset. A combined PetroChina-BP would have oil and gas reserves that were 73 percent and 187 percent larger, respectively, than ExxonMobil Corp and Royal Dutch Shell Plc.

http://i737.photobucket.com/albums/xx18/sgdaily10/natsukotatsumi054.jpg

The sale to Petrochina has to go through as BP tries to distance itself from the negative press and claims going forward. By selling, it will give BP a fighting chance to re-emerge from the disaster. A lot of pension funds, especially in UK will be putting a lot of pressure on the board to sell, and they will probably get the quickest deal at the best price with Petrochina.

Looking at the possibility of a $60 billion worst case scenario by Oppenheimer, the assets of BP is still more than doubled that easily. Its income per year would cover that. Stanchart see a worst case scenario costing BP $40 billion.

Thursday, 10 June 2010

Basis Capital Fund, A Drunk Without A Cabfare To Go Home

You are a hedge fund manager, you have stewed in the hotpot of greed, filth and slime for years, you should understand that you can never trust your brokers, you know very well the ethics in the industry is at the same level as the acceptability of eating cats & dogs, you know these are not publicly traded instruments and are bound to be mis-priced with a great range for volatility, you should realise that you can be screwed in the deal as much as you were intending to screw the other party, no one bribed you to do the deal, in the end you buggers were just not very good ... were you

michelle chia Michelle Chia and Shaun Chen Married

* Settlement talks between Basis fund and Goldman heat up

* Basis claims it was misled on Timberwolf CDO

* Basis invested in deal in June 2007 (Attention language in paragraphs 19-20 that may offend some readers)

NEW YORK, May 18 (Reuters) - An Australian hedge fund's former independent director has been complaining to U.S. regulators for more than two years about how Goldman Sachs Group contributed to the fund's collapse by selling it a toxic mortgage-linked security.

Now, in the wake of a recent U.S. Senate hearing on Goldman's role in the U.S. mortgage mess, during which the security -- called Timberwolf -- was repeatedly singled out by lawmakers as a particularly egregious transaction, David Mapley said he's finally getting a measure of satisfaction.

But Mapley, a former independent director for the Basis Yield Alpha Fund, said what he really wants is for Goldman to give back the $100 million the Basis Capital fund and its investors sank into the Timberwolf collateralized debt obligation.

There are signs the persistence of Mapley and others connected to the defunct Australian hedge fund may be about to pay off.

A Washington, D.C., law firm that represents the Basis fund is negotiating with Goldman over a possible settlement to the hedge fund's $100 million claim, people familiar with the situation said.

The fund's representatives initially hired Washington's Baach Robinson & Lewis more than a year ago to look into suing Goldman over the Timberwolf deal. The law firm did work on a draft complaint, but a lawsuit was never filed for reasons that remain unclear.

'BEYOND THE NORM'

Mapley, who resides in Switzerland but also has homes in the Cayman Islands and the United States, said he met with lawyers from Baach Robinson when he was still serving as one of the fund's independent directors and urged them to sue Goldman.

He stepped down from the fund's board last summer and hasn't been involved in any settlement talks with the investment bank.

"We found this aggressive behavior by Goldman," said Mapley, who still serves an independent director for a number of other offshore hedge funds. "We started uncovering certain practices that were beyond the norm."

image

The Basis fund's main contention is that the fund's managers were misled by Goldman when it purchased two $50 million tranches of Timberwolf, a $1 billion CDO that Goldman took to market in March 2007, according to Mapley and other people familiar with the situation.

The Basis fund sank money into Timberwolf in June 2007, after the one-time $500 million fund claims it got assurances from Goldman's mortgage trading desk that the market for CDOs had stabilized after falling sharply.

In fact, the hedge fund initially passed up an opportunity to invest in Timberwolf in April 2007 because Basis' managers were concerned about the health of the CDO market.

Mapley said he has been told Goldman sold the Timberwolf securities to the hedge fund at a significantly higher price than what similar mortgage-linked securities were selling for at the time. Basis' managers were not aware that Goldman's mortgage trading desk was actively shorting CDOs and other subprime mortgage-linked securities at the time of the Timberwolf deal, he said.

Michael Duvally, a Goldman spokesman, said, "Basis advertised itself as a highly experienced, professional CDO manager and investor." He added that the hedge fund "had access to the same information regarding the underlying portfolio as Goldman Sachs."

DEAL'S NOTORIETY

Mapley, however, said he found Goldman's conduct in marketing and selling Timberwolf so disturbing that he contacted the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission about the deal in December 2007. He subsequently sat down with SEC lawyers several times in early 2008 to discuss the transaction, which he said securities regulators were already looking into.

In light of the SEC's early interest in Timberwolf, Mapley said he was surprised the commission's civil fraud claim against Goldman focused on another CDO -- Abacus 2007.

"When I saw the SEC action against Goldman I thought it was going to be Timberwolf," he said.

http://images.cannla.com/Main/07/87/00027387/Magazine-Her-World-May-2003-Michelle-Chia-Cover.jpg

An SEC spokesman declined to comment on whether its lawyer met with Mapley and if regulators are looking into the Timberwolf transaction.

However, the Timberwolf deal drew considerable notoriety during last month's hearing by the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigation when lawmakers revealed that a former Goldman executive had described the transaction as "one shitty deal" in an internal Goldman email.

Former Goldman mortgage executive Thomas Montag, who now works for Bank of America, penned that "shitty deal" email on June 22, 2007. A week earlier, Basis invested in the Timberwolf deal by plunking down about $11 million in cash and financing the rest of the transaction with a margin loan from Goldman.

The Timberwolf deal, which referenced a pool of other subprime-backed CDOs, quickly soured. By the end of August, the deal had lost 80 percent of its value and the CDO was liquidated in June 2008.

In buying Timberwolf on margin, Basis agreed to let Goldman re-price the value of the securities as it saw fit. And within weeks of closing the transaction, Goldman began marking down the securities and demanding cash collateral from Basis.

In August 2007, the hedge fund told its investors it was planning to liquidate. Basis contends the liquidation was prompted in part by the demands for collateral payments by Goldman, said people familiar with the hedge fund and information reviewed by Reuters.

TOKIO MARINE ROLE

Basis was not the only hedge fund that purchased Timberwolf securities and went belly-up in summer 2007.

The single biggest buyer of Timberwolf securities was the once giant Bear Stearns group of hedge funds, which invested $300 million in the CDO. The Bear funds, which once controlled nearly $30 billion of CDOs and other subprime mortgage-linked securities, imploded in June 2007 after the funds could not meet a series of margin calls from a dozen Wall Street lenders, including Goldman.

Another buyer of Timberwolf securities was a division of Tokio Marine Holding Inc, one of Japan's largest property and casualty insurers, said people familiar with the Timberwolf deal. The insurer did not return phone calls seeking comment.

Basis for claim?

The rather ambitious attempt by Australian hedge fund Basis Yield Alpha Fund to win more than $US1 billion in damages from Goldman Sachs over the $US56 million it lost investing in a portfolio of 'toxic' sub-prime mortgage securities promoted by the bank will, if it fully runs its course through the courts, help provide a better understanding of the limitations of the caveat emptor principle.

Basis, described by Goldman as one of the world’s most experienced investors in collateralised debt obligations, was forced into insolvency in 2007 after failing to meet a series of margin calls made by Goldman.

Two and a half weeks before that happened, Basis had invested in the now notorious Timberwolf CDO product – securities described famously by a senior Goldman executive involved at the time as "one shitty deal." At the time Goldman was promoting Timberwolf, its house view was that the sub-prime market was likely to become distressed and it held a net short position against that market.

The Basis case appears to have grown out of the Securities and Exchange Commission’s civil action against Goldman, in relation to a similar transaction in which it sold a synthetic CDO developed in conjunction with hedge fund Paulson & Co to a German bank without telling the CDO manager or the bank that Paulson – which was on the "short" side if the transaction – had a role in choosing the underlying securities in the portfolio. Goldman and the SEC have been in negotiations for a settlement of that action.

Both cases raise the issue of the extent to which sophisticated institutional investors are responsible for their own investment decisions and the due diligence associated with them. The corollary to that question is the extent to which promoters of a product offered to a sophisticated investor have a duty to fully explain the nature of the risks involved and express their own opinion of the product and the securities and market conditions underlying it.

https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAFeCv5Mx5t1E5puZ3pkiCcSW6NYA8GsFEuZq9Eby44wg1CODFGuarZWKJg9Iipjrfj6VFIwqoeK0c6sN2O2sPP_V3dpeHyH0EIEKxpxD_FOSSj3SGioHYWCqxWTupQ6u8P22LBWbUYzXn/s400/P1090877.jpg

In its statement of claim, filed in the US courts, Basis says it would never have invested in Timberwolf had it know Goldman played a significant role in the collateral selection process. It says Goldman’s knowledge of the market and price for Timberwolf was superior to its own and, because Timberwolf and similar CDOs were not publicly traded and were illiquid, it had little ability to obtain information about prevailing prices in the sector and, in particular, the pricing of the securities in Timberwolf.

It says that, at the time, it was reluctant to purchase an interest in Timberwolf because of its concerns about the CDO market, but sought assurance from Goldman that the price being offered (it bought securities with a face value of $US100 million for $US80 million) was good in the existing market and that the market for that type of security was stable. It is self-evident that it relied upon those assurances, to its detriment.

Goldman itself says that, in entering the transaction, Basis specifically stated that it would place no reliance on Goldman – and signed off on that statement.

If Basis were a "mum and dad" retail investor, Goldman would no doubt be in strife. But it wasn’t. It was an experienced hedge fund managed by very experienced market professionals.

In its own product disclosure statements, Basis described its investment process to prospective clients. Its first step was to identify miss-priced securities. The second was to research the opportunity and analyse perceived up-side and the potential down-side. The third was for the investment team to review the risk/reward attributes.

The disclosure went on to say that the Basis process started with a search for "compelling" opportunities, using "detailed models" maintained by the group to look at each security based on macro and micro factors considered relevant to making an informed investment decision, drawing heavily on the "extensive experience" of the investment team.

With all its sophistication, experience, process and technology – and its own reservations about the sub-prime market and its understanding of what was occurring within it – Basis, a leveraged investor, invested in a leveraged product exposed to that market… because Goldman said it was a good idea!

One wonders how Basis' own investors would feel about that insight into the level of due diligence taken before investing their funds.

http://www.asiaone.com/a1media/justwomen/07Jul08/michelle_chia.jpg

If Goldman had an obligation (as much of the US discussion of the bank’s dealings would suggest) to disclose more information about the products it was offering and its own dealings in those and similar products to substantial and supposedly sophisticated professional investment institutions – institutions charging their own clients for their expertise – what obligations did the buyers of the products have to properly inform themselves of the nature and value of what they were buying?

If the case lasts the distance, we may find out where the balance of obligations lies and whether the caveat emptor principle still applies to deals between sophisticated consenting adults.

The 20 Swear Words Rooney Cannot Say

The big hoo-hah over the World Cup now is the amount of incessant swearing by players. Rooney has been made the poster boy. In fact, newswires now report that the referees for the match between England and USA have been given 20 English swear words so that they can familiarise themselves for that match between England and USA. Trouble is NONE of the swear words were released or published by the media. Only at Malaysia Finance do we try to analyse which 20 words they were. Please read at the latter part of article.

The Daily Telegraph:

Carlos Simon, who has a reputation as a no-nonsense, if also controversial, official is a fluent English speaker but he and his assistants, Roberto Braatz and Altemir Hausmann, have been given a list of 20 English swear words to prepare themselves for England's Group C match against the United States.

With Rooney cautioned in Monday's practice match against the Platinum Stars for using foul and abusive language against referee Jeff Selogilwe - who warned that if the striker behaved the same during the tournament he could get sent off - it will intensify the focus on his behaviour.

Fabio Capello is likely to speak, informally, to Rooney ahead of Saturday's game to remind him of his importance to the team and also the need to keep his discipline especially if he is provoked by the Americans who have already questioned his, sometimes, volatile temperament.

Given a list of English swear words ...  controversial referee Carlos Simon

Given a list of English swear words ... controversial referee Carlos Simon Photo: Getty Images

Hausmann, Simon's first assistant, said: "We have to learn what kind of words the players say. All players swear and we know we will hear a few 'son of a ..... '."

His fellow assistant, Braatz, added: "We can't do this in 11 different languages but at least we have to know the swear-words in English."

Simon, 44, is officiating in his third World Cup finals, but has been criticised in Brazil for a series of decisions which led to one of the country's biggest clubs, Flamengo, petitioning Fifa to get him thrown out of the tournament.

Wayne Rooney .... cautioned for swearing in England's friendly match

Wayne Rooney .... cautioned for swearing in England's friendly match

Capello is acutely aware of the different referees and styles the England players will encounter during the World Cup which is why he selected officials from a series of different countries during the warm-up games and friendlies over the past two years.

It is all part of his meticulous preparation which stepped up on Wednesday with the Italian starting his in-depth analysis of how the Americans will play on Saturday. He will examine DVDs and scouting reports which may influence the selection of the team he puts out although the XI is, according to sources, starting to take shape.

One of the key decisions is who will play in goal and Joe Hart is, as has been apparent since the squad arrived in South Africa, putting increasingly severe pressure on Robert Green to be selected and may even, now, have edged ahead. Indeed it is understood that so close is the call between the two that Capello is not likely to make up his mind until after his usual post-breakfast walk on Saturday morning.

The England manager had indicated he would decide who would play on Friday but Hart's impressive performances in training and his self-assurance is putting Green's selection in doubt. David James, who is still recovering from a sore knee, is unlikely to be risked by Capello.

The decision will come down to who does best in the last two days of training with Hart understood to be that little bit "sharper" than Green right now, although the West Ham goalkeeper does have the advantage of greater experience.

It is likely that Capello will partner either Emile Heskey - who appears the favourite as things stand - or Peter Crouch with Rooney in what is expected to be a 4-4-2 formation. One of the other big selection issues is whether James Milner - who will return to training today after missing the last two days due to a temperature - or Joe Cole plays on the left of midfield. The likelihood is that Capello may favour Milner but, again, it will be an extremely close call and may depend on how he feels the Americans will line up.

The Daily Telegraph, London

--------------------------

The 20 swear words will have an English/UK bent to it. To that end, Anorak has cited a survey of swear words: Swearing and offensive language – severity rating - Source: Delete Expletives? Researched by NOP for the ASA, BBC, BSC and ITC

Cunt

83

13

3

1*

1

1

Motherfucker

79

15

4

2*

2

2

Fuck

71

22

6

1*

3

3

Wanker

37

37

22

4

4

4

Nigger

42

26

14

18

5

11

Bastard

33

33

25

8

6

5

Prick

26

36

29

8

7

7

Bollocks

25

32

34

8

8

6

Arsehole

22

34

36

7

9

9

Paki

34

26

16

24

10

17

Shag

27

28

32

12

11

8

Whore

26

33

25

15

12

13

Twat

26

27

27

19

13

10

Piss off

18

32

42

7

14

12

Spastic

32

24

16

28

15

14

Slag

19

31

33

17

16

18

Shit

16

26

49

9

17

15

Dickhead

16

24

44

16

18

19

Pissed off

14

24

47

14

19

16

Arse

10

21

47

21

20

20

Bugger

9

22

48

21

21

21

Balls

11

19

44

25

22

22

Jew

20

15

14

51

23

24

Sodding

7

18

45

30

24

23

Jesus Christ

14

13

27

46

25

26

Crap

5

15

48

32

26

25

Bloody

3

11

56

29

27

27

God

10

8

23

60

28

28

*Fewer than 25 correspondents





















There are more than 20, so to cut the list down, here is what I think the 20 swear words were, in order of popularity:

1. FUCK / FUCK OFF
2. PRICK
3. PISS OFF
4. SHIT
5. ARSEHOLE
6. BUGGER
7. JESUS / JESUS CHRIST / CHRIST
8. BOLLOCKS
9. DICKHEAD
10. WANKER
11. GOD
12. BALLS
13. MOTHERFUCKER
14. BASTARD
15. CUNT
16. SODDING / SOD OFF
17. TWAT
18. CRAP
19. SPAZ / SPASTIC
20. ANY PAIRINGS OR COMBINATIONS OF THE ABOVE